Abstract

Due to the aforementioned factors, it is expected that the global notebook PC market will still grow in the second half, but the growth momentum will be weaker than last year. Year-on-year growth in the third quarter is expected to reach 17.5%, compared with approximately 30% a year earlier.

In 2007, launch of Microsoft Windows Vista and next-generation 64-bit CPUs will usher in a new PC era. In addition, new technological applications will generate momentum for another round of growth for the notebook PC market, including application of NAND Flash memory in storage devices of notebook PCs, application of LED (Light Emitting Diode) as backlight source of notebook PC panels, introduction of 802.11n technology into notebook PCs for more convenient wireless transmission, and strengthened hand-writing function of the new Microsoft operating system.

Although desktop PC business in emerging markets has begun to take off in 2005 and 2006 and has become a major growth driver, notebook PC brands still target high-end consumers in emerging markets. Desktop replacement demand is still most evident in mature markets such as Europe and the United States. 

Moreover, there still exists a price gap of over US$300 between mainstream desktop PCs and notebook PCs, which is still very large for consumers with relatively low average incomes in emerging countries. Therefore, value-line notebook PCs are still not mainstream models for vendors in emerging markets. However, with a decline of notebook PC prices and launch of models for specific markets, such as MIT OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) and Intel's Eduwise notebook PC, notebook PC business in emerging markets is expected to take off in 2007 and 2008.